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Sparse covariance estimation in heterogeneous samples
Standard Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) implicitly assume that the
conditional independence among variables is common to all observations in the
sample. However, in practice, observations are usually collected form
heterogeneous populations where such assumption is not satisfied, leading in
turn to nonlinear relationships among variables. To tackle these problems we
explore mixtures of GGMs; in particular, we consider both infinite mixture
models of GGMs and infinite hidden Markov models with GGM emission
distributions. Such models allow us to divide a heterogeneous population into
homogenous groups, with each cluster having its own conditional independence
structure. The main advantage of considering infinite mixtures is that they
allow us easily to estimate the number of number of subpopulations in the
sample. As an illustration, we study the trends in exchange rate fluctuations
in the pre-Euro era. This example demonstrates that the models are very
flexible while providing extremely interesting interesting insights into
real-life applications
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